The Beginnings of Our New Energy Reality

Changes are afoot that presage a radical restructuring of U.S. energy policy. Given that energy touches every aspect of our lives, it's also fair to say that these changes will have dramatic impacts on virtually everyone. Whether their impacts will be entirely salutary, or even effective, given the enormous scale of the problem, remains to be seen.

A couple of weeks ago, Al Gore wrote an op-ed for the New York Times in which he laid out his vision for the "emergency rescue of civilization" from "the imminent and rapidly growing threat of climate change." Interestingly, in addition to the "apocalyptic warnings from the planet" on climate change, Gore also mentioned the other crisis that until recently dared not speak its name: peak oil.

Investing in renewable energy infrastructure to combat climate change, Gore argued, would also be a key strategy in reviving our tanking economy and confronting the challenges of energy security.

"Here is the good news: the bold steps that are needed to solve the climate crisis are exactly the same steps that ought to be taken in order to solve the economic crisis and the energy security crisis."

Given his political stature, and the fact that his proposals closely resemble those that Obama himself has put forward, it seems highly likely that a large increase in renewable energy investments are a fait accompli in the coming years. Gore's proposals, however, are likely to be only a first step. Proposing to build massive solar thermal plants in the Southwest and wind farms Texas to the Dakotas while rebuilding the national grid may sound radical; and in the context of business as usual over the last 30 years, it is.

But given the rate of depletion and the pressure of economic growth from developing countries like China and India, even a radical increase in renewable energy production will not be enough. Americans (and everyone else) will have to cut consumption. Plug-in hybrid electrics might help, but like many others, I doubt that we will be able to switch our auto fleet fast enough to mitigate massive energy shortfalls.

A more pointed proposal on this front (also published in The New York Times) comes from Robert Goodman, a professor of environmental design at Hampshire College. Given that the big three automakers are now unlikely to survive without a federal takeover, Goodman argues, the government should take the opportunity to not only force them to build more fuel efficient, plug-in hybrid cars, but to wholly remake themselves into companies that build urban mass transit and high-speed intercity rail.

It's an outrageous idea--and one that might have been wildly unrealistic only a year or two ago. But we may soon find that the traditional political forces that would have screamed in opposition to such a plan (say, think-tanks funded by car companies) have lost their leverage.

To be sure, oil prices have fallen recently. But imagine how such a proposal might play a year from now, when a collapsing dollar and accelerating depletion combine to drive prices back to the $150 to $200 per barrel range, even as the big three automakers have gone into receivership, and Americans can no longer afford to by Honda Civics much less Priuses.

By the time we get to that point, there will be few people who have enough energy to shout about how public transportation is communism--and we will be living in a very different country.

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haces, which are cheap and plentiful. "'What I see are people who want affordable energy," says Mr. Watson. "They want strong environmental standards—they want a lot of things—but first and foremost they want affordable energy. A